Why Cyprus should worry about Kosovo
Editorial de Cyprus Mail
THE ISSUE of Kosovo does not make many headlines in Cyprus, but there is no doubt that, behind the scenes, the government is following developments very closely, concerned at the way events might unfold.
Beyond any sentimental solidarity with the Serbs, Kosovo matters to Cyprus. There are too many parallels and it is too close to home to dismiss any final outcome to the dispute as irrelevant to our own.
Put bluntly, Kosovo is another TRNC, a part of Serbia over which the recognised central government has no control, lost in the aftermath of a war, overwhelmingly populated by a minority ethnic group that claimed persecution at the hands of the majority. Settlement talks have failed to produce agreement (in this case, the international community is seeking an agreed divorce), and now leaders of Kosovo’s ethnic Albanian majority are threatening to declare independence if a final push fails by December 10.
What should seriously worry Cyprus is that, while the TRNC has so far remained unrecognised by everyone bar Turkey, there is a good chance that Albania will not be the only country to recognise an independent Kosovo. Indeed, were it not for Russia’s veto there is a good chance that independence would have been enshrined by the United Nations Security Council itself, irrespective of Serbia’s opposition, and irrespective of her recognised sovereignty over the province.
Analysts say the Albanians of Kosovo can count on recognition from Washington, with the United States expecting the EU to follow suit. That would pose problems for the 27, with Cyprus not the only country opposed to recognition, and a common position is unlikely to emerge. But we can envisage a situation where individual member states break ranks and recognise Kosovo, just as they did with Croatia and Slovenia in the early 1990s.
What would that mean for Cyprus? It would underline the fundamental truth of international politics that ultimately political interest reigns supreme, that power politics drives international law, and not the other way round. It would underline that recognised sovereignty can be unrecognised at the stroke of a pen, if that is what the great powers want to do.
The point is that Washington couldn’t care less if Belgrade goes ballistic over the issue. And the way things are going, it may not be too worried about Russia’s opposition either. Serbia has burned whatever bridges it had with the international community during the years of Milosevic rule. The danger for Cyprus is that in feeding a paranoid isolationism for domestic political purposes, the government is genuinely isolating the country in the international community. Lacking any strategic weight, we are entirely dependant on the good will of our allies. What Kosovo shows is that our legal right alone will not save us, that relying on Russia while alienating America and major European powers is a very risky way to defend our interests.
8 Septiembre 2007
Turkey can become even colder about U.S. if genocide recognized, expert says
Friday, September 7, 2007
SERKAN DEMÝRTAÞ
ANKARA – Turkish Daily News
Relations between Turkey and the United States may be damaged further if the U.S. Congress recognizes the killings of Armenians at the hands of the Ottoman Empire as genocide, warned a senior fellow of the German Marshall Fund of the United States.
“But this is not the only case,” Dr. Ian O. Lesser, a member of the team drafting the Transatlantic Trends 2007 survey, told the Turkish Daily News. “The Turkish public opinion is very sensitive about the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) attacks. The United States should do something on that issue not only to win the hearts here but also as a strategic decision.”
The survey, unveiled yesterday, analyzes relations between the United States and European countries through a series of studies in 13 countries, including Turkey.
There is growing frustration among Turks over perceived U.S. ignorance on the PKK's presence in northern Iraq, placing the country near the top of a list of anti-American nations.
“I hear what everyone else is hearing,” Lesser said. “The (genocide) resolution is expected to pass this year. Even though it is symbolic, Turkish public opinion will harshly react to that. But both parties should try to keep their reaction as moderate as possible.”
Lesser was not optimistic that the new leadership in Turkey, including the new president and foreign minister, could change the current chill in ties between the two NATO allies. He said that a powerful majority government would be important to mend existing fences but warned the problematic areas in bilateral relations such as the PKK and the genocide resolution remain on the table.
“This is just like the general public opinion of Turkish people toward the United States,” Lesser said. “We were asking the Turks if they were optimistic that bilateral relations would get better after the presidential elections in the United States. And the Turks said, “No.” They are rather pessimistic. Why? It is all about Iraq. It is all about (U.S. President George) Bush. But it seems the attitude (of the Turks) will not change even if Bush leaves office because Iraq remains even if Bush leaves.”
On Turkey's recent agreements on energy cooperation with Iran despite repeated objections from Washington, Lesser dismissed claims that Turkey was blackmailing the United States to block the passage of the genocide resolution. “I think Turkey is making such agreements to meet its energy needs,” he said.
Good news, bad news
The survey reveals one good and one bad finding for Turkey.
Although a majority of Europeans do not want Turkey to enter the European Union, the survey also shows that a good number of them think that Turkey's membership is inevitable. The survey also shows that the public in only four EU countries believes that Turkey will not become a full member of the 27-nation bloc.
“This is a good thing that the Europeans see the inevitability of Turkey's membership,” Lesser said.
But the report also found that 26 percent of Turks desire membership.
One chart in the survey measures Turks' sentiments toward other nations in degrees Celsius, indicating the level of chill or warmth Turks feel for other peoples. Turks' positive feelings toward the United States are at about 11 degrees Celsius. Israel stands at the bottom of the list with five degrees Celsius, close to freezing. “These numbers were twice higher in last year's survey,” Lesser pointed out.
But Turks' warmth toward Palestinians, Iranians and Europeans also decreased, the survey found. “There is a growing tendency toward political isolation which is quite worrying,” Lesser said. "A one-year-long political debate at home as well as rising nationalism as a result of the terrorist attacks could be major reasons for this. (But) it is still hard to explain this situation when thinking of the growing integration of the Turkish economy with the world and profiting from globalization," he said.
8 Septiembre 2007
